No summer bounce for Welsh small businesses – as growth forecasts hit 12-month low

Growth forecasts in Wales fall sharply from spring months (from 28% to 20%)

· North West the only UK region where small business growth forecasts rose

· Sharp falls across the South – with construction, retail and hospitality hit hardest

The percentage of Welsh small businesses predicting growth has fallen sharply since the Spring (Q2) – from 28% to 20% for the summer months (Q3). This represents the lowest level for growth forecasts in Wales for 15-months – and the current 20% figure is a sharp fall from 32% this time last year (Q3 2025), according to the latest small business data from Novuna Business Finance.

With around 41% of small businesses regarding themselves to be seasonal businesses, the Business Barometer study by Novuna Business Finance, explored whether the hot weather, summer holiday period and sports events had triggered a summer confidence-boost to Welsh small business growth forecasts. The latest findings suggest that small business growth forecasts for the summer period in Wales are significantly down on previous years.

Percentage of Welsh small businesses predicting growth each summer – results over time

Q3 2023	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	Q3 2026
27%	32%	32%	20%

Growth forecasts for Welsh small businesses this summer also trail the national average of 24%, a fall from 28% last quarter. Across the UK, the north west is the only region where there is a quarter-on-quarter rise in small business growth forecasts (a modest rise from 26% in Q2 to 28% for Q3). Everywhere else in England, the percentage of small businesses predicting growth for the next three months has fallen – and most significantly in the south east (falling from 21% to 16%) the south west (from 22% to 15%) and Wales.

The Business Barometer tracking study from Novuna Business Finance goes beyond general feelings of confidence and, instead, every quarter tracks the percentage of small business owners that forecast tangible business growth for the next three months.

The sector picture for July 2026

There was a mixed picture on small business growth forecasts across industry sectors. Whilst manufacturing, transport and IT recorded quarter-on-quarter rises in growth outlook, there were significant falls elsewhere. In the construction sector, the percentage of small businesses predicting growth almost halved to 15% and there were also sharp falls for enterprises in the hospitality (21%) and retail sectors (21%) – ruling out the likelihood of a much-needed ‘feel-good’ bounce from the World Cup and hot weather.

The percentage of small businesses predicting growth by sector

	Q3 2026	Q2 2026
Manufacturing	31%	29%
Construction	15%	29%
Retail	21%	38%
Finance and Accounting	34%	45%
Hospitality	21%	25%
IT / telecoms	32%	29%
Media	21%	35%
Medical services	25%	21%
Transport	35%	28%
Agriculture	27%	20%

Jo Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance comments: “The latest findings are a concern for Wales, with growth forecasts trailing the national average and there being no sign of a seasonal bounce in small business confidence. The context of geo-political tensions, rising fuel prices and political uncertainty following the local elections have probably all played out when it comes to small business planning. The one thing small businesses don’t like is uncertainty.

“At Novuna Business Finance, we remain committed to supporting established businesses as they plan for the future, helping them invest in long-term opportunities that can drive growth, improve operational efficiency and strengthen cash-flow. Whilst small business outlook is cautious, the community continues to demonstrate resilience. Now is the time for everyone to back small businesses with what they need to create jobs and drive future economic growth.”